Why plan for risks early?
Most project problems are not surprises. A late grant payment, a rainy season, a supplier that cannot deliver, a key post that stays empty: staff often saw these coming. The difference between a bad month and a lost quarter is whether anyone wrote the risk down and agreed a response while there was still time.
Planning before the start is also cheaper. A response that needs money, such as a second supplier or a buffer in the schedule, can go into the budget now. Later, it becomes a revision request to the donor.
What is a project risk?
A risk is an uncertain event that, if it happens, would harm your results, your people, your budget or your reputation. Write each one in a clear form: cause, event, effect. For example: “Because the main road floods in the rainy season, deliveries to two sites may be late, so training may start a month behind.”
Avoid vague items like “bad weather” or “funding”. They cannot be scored and nobody can act on them.
Here is one more example for a staffing risk: “Because few qualified nurses live near the clinic, recruitment may take three months longer than planned, so health sessions may start late and spending may fall behind.” Notice that it names a cause, an event and an effect, so you can see where to act: start recruitment earlier, widen the search, or plan a training step.
Also list risks that come from outside the project: policy changes, currency swings, conflict, disease outbreaks, late donor payments. You cannot control them, but you can prepare for them.
How do you run a risk workshop?
Keep it to half a day with the people who will deliver the work: project manager, finance, logistics, MEAL, field leads and, if possible, a partner.
- Read the plan. Walk through the work plan, budget and results framework.
- Brainstorm. For each major activity, ask “What could stop this?” Write every answer on its own card.
- Group and clean. Merge duplicates. Rewrite each item as cause, event, effect.
- Score. Rate likelihood and impact on a simple scale, such as 1 to 5.
- Choose the top risks. Pick the highest scores for a full response plan.
- Assign owners and dates.
How should you score risks?
Multiply likelihood by impact to get a score. Use the same scale for every risk and define what each number means before you start.
| Score | Rating | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Unlikely and small effect | Note it; review at the regular date |
| Medium | Possible or moderate effect | Name an owner and a light response |
| High | Likely or large effect | Full response plan, reviewed monthly |
Scores are judgement, not measurement. Their value is that the team talks and agrees. Our article on how to read a risk heatmap shows how to display the result.
Agree the scale in plain words. For likelihood, you might say 1 means “unlikely in this project” and 5 means “almost certain”. For impact, 1 may mean “a delay of days” and 5 may mean “a major result cannot be delivered”. Write these meanings on the page used in the workshop, so every person scores in the same way.
Do not argue about whether a score is 12 or 15. Argue about whether the risk belongs in the top group, and what to do about it.
What responses are available?
For each serious risk, pick one of four responses and write it down:
- Avoid: change the plan so the risk cannot happen.
- Reduce: lower the chance or the effect, for example by adding a second supplier.
- Transfer: pass part of the risk to someone better placed, for example through insurance or a partner’s agreement.
- Accept: do nothing now, but write down the trigger that would change your mind.
A response is only real if it has an owner, a date, and, where needed, money in the budget.
Put the response into the work plan as a real activity. If the response is a second supplier, add the task of finding and checking one, with a date. If it is a buffer in the schedule, show the buffer. Where a response needs money, such as extra training or a security measure, put it in the budget before you sign, since changes later need donor approval.
How do you keep the risk list alive?
Put the review in the calendar before the project starts. Monthly is common for high risks, quarterly for the rest. At each review, ask four questions: Has any risk changed in score? Has any occurred? Are there new ones? Did the responses work? Record the changes with a date.
Also share the top risks with the donor if your agreement asks for it. Check the agreement for what is required.
Where EMPOBase fits
In EMPOBase, Programs holds the planning records for a project, including the project charter, and the Risk Register and Risk Heatmap in governance help you score and view risks. Risk & Learning in MEAL keeps risks and lessons close to the project’s results. These tools hold your records; they do not decide scores for you, so the workshop still matters. You can see the planning modules in the platform overview.